Chapomatic

Statehood, baby. It’s a very good deal. I even looked into it once and it checks out. Right there in the Constitution and everything.

Tom Barnett is asking how a 51st state could come about. I don’t think it’s a question of 51st so much as getting a group of different countries who are interested, as well as the US, in doing so; create the environment and add time, and we might see such a change.

I’ve added a comment to his post and will recycle it below. I have a surprising thought about what a potential 51st could be…

Thanks for pushing this idea. You might say it’s a pet rock of mine by now.

I think you’re right that if you get a 51st then others follow more quickly. Perhaps thinking about it a little more in terms of strategic environment, rather than country by country, would be useful. My library trips taught me that countries often spent a long time (decades) getting to the point where both the country or territory’s governments both passed legislation agreeing to statehood at the same time. Given the slow nature of the process on occasion, and the lack of any really in process right now, then I am betting there is likely to be a cluster of new states at once or no new states, nothing in between. The defense umbrella we have right now also is an inhibitor to the statehood process because countries perceive the benefits of our protective umbrella without being a state.

My dark horse vote? South Sudan, who can constitutionally secede in 2011 from Sudan and is stable enough due partially to the first genocide there. All you’d need is a good core of interested people in both the US and South Sudan.

My guess at some other possibilities:
–Latin American states: Your friend at Harvard knows more than me on that. I defer to his expertise.
–Mexico: They’ve lost territory to us before, and are potentially unstable enough to have another region try to leave, but multiculturalism and the rise of the reconquista meme protect against it. Might be worth watching. Might be interesting to game how we might wind up with, say, Oaxaca (I don’t think Baja’s going to leave because they’ve changed some of their government so the Americans will retire there).
–Former satellites: Some Eastern European countries would be interested, but the first one of those countries would have to break a meme. EU is a competitor, and I wrote that paper thinking a country’s EU accession would be improved even if they just considered statehood to improve the conditions of accession to the EU.
–Puerto Rico: Friend of mine did a thesis proving that the territory has the best of all worlds politically: American citizenship, billions of dollars in aid, in the defense umbrella, state-level low barriers to trade, and they still get the ability to complain about the Yanquis. Because of the stability of that position I don’t expect much change for a while.
–African countries: It’s possible that one of the countries–or regions, like South Sudan–might go for that kind of deal. The first barrier to entry would be getting the expat community and leadership interested in the concept.
–Asian countries: I think the language barrier and closeness to China and Russia and India make that more hard than less. Saipan is happy where it is; Fiji’s not likely to be a candidate; the ‘stans I’d put in the “very hard” category.
–Middle East: I don’t see it.
–Canada: They’re trending more stable than less but if Quebec goes than maybe the folks in Halifax will decide they want to change. Unlikely.

Anyhow, my two cents. Next question: who’s going to make such things happen?