Austin Bay says Tet is coming. I worried about this before and got lulled into not worrying about it.
I forgot there was an election coming up. Blood to ink to blood.
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December 27th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
I think the commenters at AB hit the mark. To try to compare Iraq to Vietnam is to not really understand the situation in either case. I still believe that even without the Tet offensive the war would have been a big factor in the 1968 Presidential election.
Besides the surge is “working”. So how can there be a Tet offensive?
December 28th, 2007 at 5:12 am
I was pondering this possibility the other day as I realized that we are at a critical juncture in the election cycle and some of the wannabes will be bled off before long. The success of the surge has taken a lot of wind out of the Democrats’ sails, and an organized enemy would at least consider giving the party-most-likely-to-declare-defeat a little boost in the final lap.
No conclusion was reached from my pondering, there was not enough data. Mainly because I don’t know how much of the current lull in enemy activity can be attributed to a decision to lay low until the conditions favor them, and how much of it is they just got tired of getting killed. My belief, and hope is that it’s something like the latter.
December 28th, 2007 at 5:36 am
I think you’re right that closely comparing Iraq to Vietnam isn’t a great idea. However, I can also recognize our weakest center of gravity and listen to Gen Giap’s instructions about how to win against Americans, and see that such a technique could well be attempted by the people we’re fighting now who have taken those lessons to heart. WarNerd in Bay’s comments might well be closer to the mark, though, since these guys tend to think of terror attacks as advertising. And of course we just saw Benazhir Bhutto killed today…