Yemen
So, I’ve been looking into the ops going on at the Yemeni border. Something reminded me of the losing side of the Hama massacre, and I mentioned that to a counterpart. Counterpart tells me he visited Hama, and claims it took at least six days of continuously shooting people in order for Hafiz Assad’s army to kill every man, woman and child in the town.
Here’s my 2006 analysis of Al-Qaeda’s lessons learned for the failed ops that culminated in the massacre. The reason Hama came up in my mind is because three unrelated organizations, covertly sponsored by Iraq, came together despite strong differences to try and take over the country. A lot of innocents died because of their combined effort and the reaction of the Assad regime. Yemen has unrelated organizations, and I assert they are working together and there’s trouble brewing beyond this week’s combat operations.
The northern Yemeni border is a mountainous and hard-to-navigate territory with a mix of tribal people who live on both sides of the border. The region also holds gun runners, drug smugglers, human traffickers, desperate refugees, hardened fighters, ultraviolent religious extremists, Houthieen, Al-Qaeda, and even (it is rumored) insurance salesmen.
Okay, maybe not the insurance salesmen. But I wouldn’t be surprised.
A ‘humanitarian crisis worse than Darfur‘? In Yemen. That US Army major that shot fifty people and killed over a dozen in Fort Hood? His imam’s in Yemen. The AQ leaders we released from Guantanamo? They’re in Yemen. More than one official says the Iranian Republican Guard is supporting ops in Yemen, and I don’t think it’s merely a Sunni vs. Shi’a acrimony driving that analysis. The hirabi escaping from Pakistan are moving into Yemen.
Even if the current ops calm down soon, this ain’t going to go away soon. Time to start looking close at this region, folks.
2 Responses to “Yemen”
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November 10th, 2009 at 9:06 am
There’s lots of accusations that Iran is supporting the Houthi rebellion, but the particular article you linked is a more bizarre story. Opposition politician Hamid al Ahmar said that the Yemeni President’s Republican Guard is aiding the Houthi rebels in an effort to weaken General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar. Recently the Yemeni Defense Ministry imported a shipload of Chinese weapons destined for the rebels, the DM says the documents were forged but the Chinese merchant says they are legit. So we have an entirely fractured and factional Yemeni government fighting itself through the proxy of the rebels. To some extent or another, its likely true and explains the duration of the war which has several driving factors.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
It’s fascinating stuff. Local papers here emphasize that the army to the north isn’t going to go into Yemen–smart move, I think–and hundreds of volunteers are driving down into the region, which adds a burden on the ground forces trying to support the moved villages while gently pushing away the amateurs.